Daily worldwide cotton market report
May 19, 2019 (Global)
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Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 57.55 with a gain of 125 points, the October 09 closed at 59.62 with a gain of 135 points, while the December 09 closed at 60.38 with a gain of 131 points. The cotlook A index declared settled at 60.90 with a loss of 130 points today.
The spot rate of KCA moved once again towards a new high and the settlement declared at Rs. 3750/=, with an increase of Rs. 50/= today. In the domestic market today 1000 bales of Noor Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=, 600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, 400 bales of Haroon Abad sold at Rs. 3700/=, 500 bales of Peer Mahal sold at Rs. 3525/=, 2047 bales of Liaquat Pur sold at Rs. 3600/=, 1600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan at Rs. 3700/=.
Investor buying enthusiasm to the first USDA Supply/Demand forecast for the 09/10 marketing year shifted by mid week after the U.S. April retail sales were released on Wednesday and showed less of a decline than March, but a decline nevertheless. The decline accelerated on Friday after news circulated that the Chinese government was preparing to release between 500,000 and 700,000 tons of cotton reserves for auction as early as next week.
The lack of any renewed U.S. export inquiry coupled with momentum extremes to the upside aided the precipitous decline on Friday. Open interest increased 7,875 contracts on the week's trade to leave 139,150 contracts open as of Thursday's close.
The CFTC reported that as of May 12th, funds were long 16.0% in futures only up from 15.1% long the previous week. Fund longs increased by 4,063 contracts and shorts increased by 1,313 contracts. Total fund longs now total 39,352 contracts versus shorts totaling 17,356 contracts.
U.S. cotton under lean as of May 12th was 563,241 down 346,618 bales. There were 250,865 bales under Form A and 502,974 bales under Form G.
According to IBD, industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which was the smallest decline in six months. "Actual output hit a 10-year low as capacity utilization fell to the lowest on record." The New York manufacturing index in May rose to -4.55 from April's -14.65 and March's record low -38.23.
We still suggest that the general commodity price environment will be dictated by the trend in U.S. equity prices. Fund managers will continue to use the leading economic barometer to forecast the pace of the economic recovery. Stock values have soared 37% from the March 9th low to the May 8th close. The fear is that current stock valuations may be overstating companies' abilities to generate earnings to justify the current P.E. ratios.
This concern was magnified by the weaker than expected report on retail sales last week. The bright spot over the past two quarters is that companies have slashed capital spending by the most since the 1930s and eliminated inventories for six quarters in a row, including the largest liquidation on record last quarter.
The massive reversal down last week would signal the completion of the 10-week rally. While the setback late last seek has down much to correct the heavily overbought conditions, the reversal down caps the rally and points the near term trend down. With the momentum more neutral, it would allow the cotton market to recover some of Friday's decline without reversing the potential for a more significant correction.
The market does not seem to have the commercial support under the market to slow the sharp break which was sparked by the extreme overbought condition of the market and from ideas that China will soon release some of their strategic reserves. The general concept that cotton was undervalued compared with other commodity markets was the theme of the recent rally and fund traders were aggressive buyers in the past two months. China's top planning body indicated that they are ready to release some of the reserves but did not give a schedule but traders believe some of the 2.72 million tonnes of cotton could begin to move on their domestic market by the end of the month.
The market pushed sharply lower on the session on Friday and July cotton moved to the lowest level since May 1st as weakness in energy and stock markets and concerns of slower demand after the recent run-up in prices helped spark the selling. Ideas that the market is overbought and a noticeable decline in weekly export sales last week helped to pressure. The new highs for the move on Tuesday with a reversal day combined with the lower close on the week could attract additional technical selling early this week.
The Commitment-of-Traders reports showed the market with a positive tilt as trend-following funds build a more significant net long position but index fund selling is a concern for the bulls. Trend-following funds were net buyers of 4,709 contracts to build a net long of 27,150 contracts. This was in sharp contracts to index fund traders who reduced their net long position by 2,082 contracts to 56,650 contracts. The chart pattern is negative and the market does not seem to have the short-term fundamental news to slow the selling.
Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number.
5月18日棉花日报
5月18日纽约棉花期货交易所 ，0709合约收于每磅57.55美分 ，上涨125点；1009合约收于59.62美元/磅 ，涨135点 ，同时1209合约上涨131点 ，收盘价在60.38美元/磅 。美国棉花展望指数（cotlook A）涨130点 ，收于每磅60.90美元 。
卡拉奇棉料购买所(KCA)棉料现货交易价钱创出筑底 ，价钱在每包3750卢比左右两边 ，下跌50卢比 。就国外市面来看 ， Noor Pur存库1000包 ，价钱为3800卢比/包；Rahim Yar Khan 参考价也为3800 ，存量600包；Haroon Abad 有400包棉料 ，价钱为3700卢比；Peer Mahal的500包棉料价钱在3525卢比；Liaquat Pur有2047包棉料 ，市场价在3600卢比；Rahim Yar Khan的1600包棉料 ，参考价为3700卢比 。
资金者购棉多方面 ，由于美4月新零售銷售上一周三发布在后 ，美畜牧业部发布在了09/15年度一期度棉絮供/需报表书 ，报表书展示棉絮提供量较之9月有小幅度过降低 ，过了幅度过不显著性 。国家政府部门现在需备尽情释放100万至六十万吨产出棉 ，早将于第一周已经拍品 ，这款产品信息让上一周六的棉絮产品报价幅度骤降 。
上周五俄罗斯出口处外贸询盘提高 。易货贸易期货合约下星期持仓延长7875 ，到周一交易时达成139150 。
淘宝产品恒指交易所委会会（CFTC）报告格式 ，五月12日 ，空头合同期大涨16.0% ，而空头合同期只大涨了15.1% 。空头合同期增多了4063手 ，空头合同期增多了1313手 。当前空头合同期总的成交量额为39352手 ，而空头合同期为17356手 。
到到4月12号 ，新西兰棉料看涨协议为563.241收 ，看跌协议为346.618包 。进来250.865源自A ，502.974原因G 。
根据投资银行的数据 ，4月份的工业生产下降了0.5个百分点 ，是近6个月来跌幅低的一个月 。“实际产量创下了10年来的低值 ，因为产能降到了低值 。”纽约生产指数5月下降4.55点 ，4月下降14.65点 ，3月降低38.23 。
emc易倍·(中国)体育官方网站-EMC SPORTS仍然建议 ，一般商品价格emc易倍·(中国)体育官方网站-EMC SPORTS将直接取决于美国股市的价格走势 。基金经理将继续采用领导经济的晴雨表来预测的经济复苏情况 。股票价格从3月9日到5月8日期间飙升37% 。令人担忧的是目前的股票市值被夸大 ，产生的收益率比现在的收益多很多 。
上个星期销售业额数剧而我高出预计值 ，这引人重视 。在上去的4个年度内 ，子公司大幅度过降低基金幅度过符合20时代30年今年以来的高标准 ，减小库存商品 ，包扩大的企业清算计录 。
在持续10周的猛涨后 ， 本周棉絮价钱大可逆 。即便是2018年终的减幅开始急剧减少许多 ，校正较为严重的超买的感觉 ，屈曲股票股票市场下滑的状态 ，并高度肯定中短期限急剧减少的大趋势 。在当前的症状先 ，棉絮股票市场即便是从上周五的下跌有所舒缓 ，可是都没了屈曲的能力 。
棉签行业因此并未的商业运作的支持软件 ，行业的陡然变缓破除了卖家行业引致的极为超买emc易倍·(中国)体育官方网站-EMC SPORTS ，且在我国将更快脱离这些 的那些战略定位保障 。平常的概念棉签相对于一些物品来看被低估 ，且卖家在上去2月内选择积极向上 ，在我国阶段的情势指出备考抛售保障棉 ，然而 议程待定 。然而 对外出口贸易公司我想月底前将有272万吨级棉签进人境内行业 。
确保棉签股票走势零售价值急剧下滑的触摸会议在上周五四五举行 。在近期的棉签价值被确保 ，价值发展飞快 ，前景剧增后 ，棉签四月合約大大减少到至的5月1日来的低枝术水平 ，而是供货流失 ，股票走势股票走势卖场勃起不硬 ，需要放缓脚步 。上周五四棉签股票走势卖场超买对出入口前景减少养成重压 。下星期二能够达到某个新纪录 ，因此下星期初有其他的枝术性抛盘 。
交易商承诺报告显示 ，市场有积极的下降的趋势 ，底部资金建立一个更重要的净多头资金 ，但指数基金销售是一个关切的公牛队 。从众资金净买家购买了4709手 ，购买净多头合同27150 。这是鲜明的合同 ，他们的净多头部资金减少2082手 ，为56650手 。图表模式是消极和市场短期内似乎没有减缓销售的消息 。
动量研究趋向高层次偏低 ，emc易倍·(中国)体育官方网站-EMC SPORTS应加快行动 ，打破跌势 。市场连续18天下跌显示 ，中期将延续下跌趋势 。这是一个看跌市场 。
